Saturday, October 19, 2013

2013 Breeders Crown Analysis

Win Report – 10/12/19 Pocono Downs

First Picks:

R2: 3 Coffeecake Hanover ($23.00)
R5: 1 Lucan Hanover ($7.80)
R8: 1 Luck Be Withyou ($6.80)
R10: 4 Captaintreacherous ($2.60)

Exotics:

R5: 1 Lucan Hanover over 2 Sunshine Beach (Cold - $14.60)
R6: 6 All Laid Out over 5 Smilin Eli over 4 Deadliest Catch (Boxed - $48.40)
R11: 3 Bee A Magician over 4 Ma Chere Hall (Boxed - $5.40)

Race 1 – Invitational 3yo Pace PA Sired Preferred
Purse: $75,000

Picks: 4-3-1-2

(4) Ultimate Beachboy – He was victorious in his last stakes outing at the Pocono oval, coming in the second consolation for the Battle of Brandywine, a 1:48.3 world-record score. Since then, he has been competing among second-string stakes company and in overnight events. His most recent start at The Meadows appears to be a 1:51.3 stroll against non-winners of $13,500. He has shown a love to the Pocono oval and will be overlooked in this bunch.

(3) Duc Dorleans – Comes off an unappealing effort at Yonkers, finishing eighth from post 7 in an Open last Saturday. Before that, he sat a pocket trip (so we think) in the foggy Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final, winning there in 1:49.2. That circuit gives more evidence to how he’ll do against this group and that evidence shows mostly positive signs.

(1) Twincreeks Jesse – Steps up from his overnight competition, doing well against the group. Four starts back, he finished third to Beach Memories and Twilight Bonfire in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes final in a 1:51 mile. His preferred racing position is in the middle of the pack and from the rail, he should get that spot with ease.

(2) Lonewolf Currier – He has shown to be an extremely bipolar horse, racing either very well or very poorly. In Delaware, he set up preposterous fractions in the Little Brown Jug, doing the same in the Battle of Brandywine. If he chooses to try and bottom out the field again, he would not prove successful.

Race 2 – Invitational 3yo Trot PA Sired Preferred
Purse: $75,000

Picks: 5-1-4-7

(5) Bambino Glide – This colt has been on an incredible trail of improvement in recent weeks. He was victorious in a previous Invitational held at Pocono on Super Stakes Saturday, trotting that mile in 1:54.2. Since then, he gradually improved against overnight company and most recently, winning against second-string stakes horses in the Keystone Classic. He got a short break after that win and should be fresh coming in here.

(1) High Bridge – He is the class of the race. He has tussled with the top glamour boys in the trotting division, from the Kentucky Futurity to the Hambletonian. He is going to be a part of some sort of speed scenario setting up. He doesn’t have sustainable speed to win on the lead, but will likely complete an exotic.

(4) Major Athens – He too is a part of the speed scenario in this race. He is making his third start off of a layoff, with his second start being an easy gate-to-wire 1:53.3 win. He has improved since August, but would need to step up to pull off a victory.

(7) Picture This – Coming off of a win in a late closer at Lexington, sitting a perfect trip to win in 1:52.4. He has speed to be put into contention early in the mile, but would need perfect circumstances to win.

Race 3 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Colt & Gelding Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 2-8-3

(2) Father Patrick – The reasoning behind him should be obvious. He trotted a spectacular mile in his elimination, winning in a world record 1:52.1. He is currently on a whole other level against these freshmen and is yet to disprove that.

(8) Nuncio – The obvious second choice. He trotted a great mile in his first start off of a layoff, trotting fast fractions and digging in against Father Patrick to lose by 1 length at the wire. He is the main contender to beat Father Patrick, but will likely fall short of that feat.

(3) Credit Fashion – Raced well in his last matchup with Father Patrick, which came in the William Wellwood final. He was uncharacteristically far off of the lead and finished third by 9 lengths in a 1:53.4 mile. He is the best of the second-tier of talent in this field and may bring a slight price into the trifecta.

Race 4 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Filly Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 3-8-5-1

(3) Uffizi Hanover – She is the buzz horse heading into the final, finishing a game fourth in her elimination. She gained 5 lengths to be second to Precocious Beauty at three-quarters, which she paced to in :27.2. She faded into the stretch and came back to finish fourth by a length-and-a-quarter in a world record mile. She draws better to be put into a stalking position and will likely race the effort of her season tonight.

(8) Precocious Beauty – Raced very well in her elimination, brushing to the lead at the half and fighting to hold command for the rest of the mile. She will likely be put into a spot where she has to make a first over move to the lead. This division has had tremendous speed over the last few months and it might prove to be devastating for her.

(5) Southwind Silence – Got a perfect trip in her elimination and flew up the passing lane to finish second by a head to Gallie Bythe Beach in a world record (before Allstar Rating’s victory in 1:50.1) mile. She will be forwardly placed and has the potential to pick up the pieces late.

(1) Act Now – Got a good spot against Precocious Beauty last week, got shuffled and came back to finish third in 1:50.2. With the rail, she should get away well again and repeat last week’s performance to hit the board.

Race 5 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Filly Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 5-3-2-8

(5) Lifetime Pursuit – She is our best bet of the night. Raced very well in her elimination. She was asked only slightly in the stretch to finish second to Shake It Cerry. Looking two starts back, she dazzled Kentuckians in the International Stallion Stake, winning with ease in 1:52.3. Now with the big money on the line and a conditioning mile under her belt, she’s ready to crush this group. 

(3) Shake It Cerry – The national consensus against Cooler Schooner in this event. She sat a pocket trip to Lifetime Pursuit to get the better end of her stable mate, winning her elimination in 1:54.1. The race was very soft fraction-wise and will not be a stroll for her tonight.

(2) Cooler Schooner – You can bet she’ll launch for the lead from this spot. She takes an incredible liking to the clay surface both here and at Lexington. Racing on her own in her 1:52.2 elimination win, she now has some competition to face and won’t be given an open length advantage with ease.

(8) Goddess – She was the lone challenger to Lifetime Pursuit, making a first over bid to try and take command. She ended up giving chase and finishing third. She has been improving with each outing and will likely be in the mix at some point in the mile.

Race 6 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Trot
Purse: $600,000

Picks: 1-8-7-5

(1) Market Share – Has not been at his top form over recent months and was put through some tough trips against these trotters. His most recent outing comes at Lexington, where he parked the mile and finished third in a 1:51.3 mile. He draws perfectly to be put into a relaxing position for most of the mile and come up the passing lane to claim redemption against Intimidate.

(8) Uncle Peter – Currently at his top form coming into the final. He got a workout mile at Lexington, trotting 1:52.2 in a qualifier two weeks back. He finally got the better of these trotters in the Centaur Trotting Classic, sitting a perfect trip to win by a head in 1:52.3. He has the potential to get another perfect trip, but will likely be only within the late mix.

(7) Arch Madness – The clay benefits the old hooves of this veteran. He woke up at Lexington, sweeping the Allerage Trot elimination and final. He would need to be put close to the pace, which may pose a challenge from post 7. He’ll likely be on the board in the end.

(5) Intimidate – He loves to close. Now, there is history where he doesn’t have to win by closing, but that’s his forte; that’s how he won the Credit Winner in what can be deemed a miracle mile. He is not one to throw out, but is up against some tough company tonight.

Race 7 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Filly Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 7-4-3-5

(7) I Luv The Nitelife – What is there to say, she has crushed this field from day one. Winning the Jugette, the Simcoe, the Valley Forge, the James Lynch, the Mistletoe Shalee and the Miss New Jersey among resume-topping performances. She will be a tough one to beat.

(4) Authorize – Really rounded into form at Lexington, winning an Open, then taking two third-place efforts in Grand Circuit competition. She has speed and can be put either on the lead or in a stalking position. Either or, she’ll be near the front for most of the mile and will likely give us a price in the exotics.

(3) Carols Desire – She is dependent on a trip. Her major victory in the International Stallion Stake came off of a pocket trip. She’ll likely be put into a comfortable spot in the early goings and save enough to hit the board in the stretch.

(5) Shebestingin – The one thought flowing through my mind is, “how much did that world record mile take out of her?” She loves to be on the lead and will do anything she can to get the lead. This attribute may prove to be her Achilles Heel in the final.

Race 8 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 2yo Colt & Gelding Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 9-4-8-3

(9) Sometimes Said – Our best longshot of the night. He sat a perfect trip to Somestarsomewhere in the eliminations, challenging him into the stretch and soon dropping back. This race has huge potential to be a speedy one on the lead, which would set up for this colt to close. He has shown he can close, doing so in the Bluegrass against Smack Talk. From post 9, he should get into a perfect spot to pull off such a move.

(4) So Surreal – The buzz horse in this division. He closed quickly in his elimination, gaining 3 lengths in a matter of strides. He will try to get a similar trip tonight, but most of these colts will be at the top of their game and will put him to a test.

(8) Three Of Clubs – He looked barely used in his elimination, being under minor encouragement while Luck Be Withyou paced away with his elimination. From post 8, he has the speed to be put into a good spot and blow up this already pricey trifecta.

(3) Ari Allstar – Closed very well with the fast fractions in his elimination. Expect him to be put in the middle of the pack and pick up some pieces late.

Race 9 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Mare Trot
Purse: $250,000

Picks: 1-5-3-2

(1) Maven – She has returned to her form that defines her name in recent weeks. She loves to take down her rivals with a first over move and will have an easy time doing exactly that from the rail.

(5) D’orsay – Appeared to use last week’s elimination as a conditioning mile, yet still fighting to hold command at the wire. She has been just a level below Maven in the final parts of this race season and could perhaps give us a somewhat priced exacta.

(3) Bax Of Life – Was impressive in her first over triumph in the elimination last week. She will have to step up drastically to have any shot to win.

(2) Check Me Out – Wasn’t thrilled with her elimination, despite her quick bid in the final strides of the mile. She has been improving with every start, but will be up to a task tonight.

Race 10 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Mare Pace
Purse: $300,000

Picks: 5-1-2-3

(5) Monkey On My Wheel – Raced strongly in the elimination, setting fast fractions on the lead and digging in to finish second by a head to Anndrovette. Expect her to be placed near the front, but likely to sit a pocket trip to Anndrovette and fly late.

(1) Rocklamation – Has began to get away closer to the lead in an attempt to close better. She closed very well last week, sitting second over and flying home in :27. From the rail, she should be able to repeat that trip.

(2) Anndrovette – Was the victor in the elimination last week, sitting a perfect trip in a 1:49.1 score. She will likely become a victim of the pace tonight, but will have enough to protect her spot on the board.

(3) Economy Terror – Had no room to pace last week and was seeking to qualify for the final in the stretch. She should be more aggressive tonight and blow up the exotics.

Race 11 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Filly Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 4-1-2

(4) Bee A Magician – She puts the Abra in Kadabra. His offspring is yet to lose a race in 14 outings this season. She’s so good, if she was sawed in half, she’d be the exacta.

(1) Coffeecake Hanover – Won only because of the trip last week. She will likely get a similar trip this week and have enough to hit the board.

(2) Ma Chere Hall – Was the only one to challenge Bee A Magician in her elimination and soon disappeared from all chances of winning. She’s at the top of her form, but would need to step up drastically tonight.

Race 12 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Colt & Gelding Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 1-2-6-3

(1) Captaintreacherous – Duh.

(2) Beach Memories – Closed well to finish third against Captaintreacherous in a 1:49.2 mile. He draws post 2 and will likely sit a comfortable trip to complete the exotic.

(6) Captive Audience – Closed well in Lucan Hanover’s 1:48 triumph last week to finish third. He has been improving week to week and may be peaking heading into tonight.

(3) Lucan Hanover – Sat a perfect trip and took down Sunshine Beach to win his elimination last week. The confidence built off of that mile may put this gelding in a bad spot at some point in the mile and throw him out of winning contention.

Race 13 – D-Breeders Crown Final – 3yo Colt & Gelding Trot
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 3-4-5-7

(3) E L Rocket – Caught our eye in his elimination last week, flying up the passing lane to be rejected the victory by Spider Blue Chip in 1:52.4. There is a ton of speed setting up a battle in this race and with the scratch of Royalty For Life, E L Rocket should get a pocket ride and blow by them all at an upset.

(4) Deadliest Catch – Provoked Smilin Eli to pick up the trot at three-quarters, going in :27.3 (he trotted there in :27.1). He soon dropped back and finished third to All Laid Out in a 1:52.4 mile. He was live last week and expect him to get a better trip this week.

(5) Spider Blue Chip – Was rated well in his gate-to-wire effort last week. He will be used a little harder since the big money is on the line this week. Expect him to be among a group of leavers in this final.

(7) Smilin Eli – He is not the same horse he was that raced on the lead. He gives way much more easily, albeit his last start was his first one in a month. He has some recovery to do and is not coming into this race with all that many positive signs.

Race 14 – D-Breeders Crown Final – Open Pace
Purse: $500,000

Picks: 3-1-4-2

(3) Golden Receiver – Sat a pocket mile last week and came up the passing lane to finish third in a 1:48.2 mile. With an inside post, expect him to leave and contain himself to sit a pocket ride and explode into the stretch.

(1) Clear Vision – Just missed to Golden Receiver in the Allerage two weeks back. He draws perfectly to be put into contention and grind his way up until the light of the wire.

(4) Modern Legend – The gelding has had so many perfect trips over the season, but never got up to win. The same happened last week, although Foiled Again had already sprinted clear of the field. He will likely be put into the exact same scenario and complete our exotics at a price.

(2) Foiled Again – Sparkled in the eyes of spectators, winning in 1:48.2. The goal of the field will be to not yield him command, seeing the blowout he committed last week. That goal is more than possible and this warhorse will have enough will to at least hit the board.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Draws for Freshmen Crowns Conducted

The finals for the $500,000 Breeders Crown two-year-old colt trot, $500,000 Breeders Crown two-year-old filly pace and the $500,000 two-year-old filly trot were conducted before Saturday's post time at Pocono Downs. 

Here is how they will line up next week:

$500,000 Breeders Crown 2yo Colt Trot
PP-Horse Name-Trainer-Driver
1-Auspicious Hanover-Charlie Norris-Charlie Norris
2-Father Patrick-Jimmy Takter-Yannick Gingras
3-Credit Fashion-Jim Campbell-Brian Sears
4-Another Transcript-Jerry Silverman-Corey Callahan
5-Expressive Action-John Grasso-Ron Pierce
6-Don Dorado-Robert Baggit Jr.-Tim Tetrick
7-Muscle Network-Tony O'Sullivan-Jody Jamieson
8-Nuncio-Jim Oscarsson-John Campbell
9-Southwind Spirit-Ron Burke-Brian Sears

$500,000 Breeders Crown 2yo Filly Trot
PP-Horse Name-Trainer-Driver
1-Struck By Lindy-Richard "Nifty" Norman-David Miller
2-Cooler Schooner-Jim Campbell-John Campbell
3-Shake It Cerry-Jimmy Takter-Ron Pierce
4-Demanding Sam-Scott McEneny-Paul MacDonell
5-Lifetime Pursuit-Jimmy Takter-Yannick Gingras
6-Market Rally-Megan Wilson-John Cummings Jr.
7-Scream And Shout-Jimmy Takter-Tim Tetrick
8-Goddess-Paul Kelley-John Campbell
9-Ruby-Erv Miller-Marcus Miller

$500,000 Breeders Crown 2yo Filly Pace
PP-Horse Name-Trainer-Driver
1-Act Now-Nikolas Drennan-Ron Pierce
2-Gallie Bythe Beach-Jim Campbell-John Campbell
3-Beach Body-Chris Oakes-Ron Pierce
4-Uffizi Hanover-Jimmy Takter-David Miller
5-Allstar Rating-Ron Burke-Yannick Gingras
6-Southwind Silence-Ron Burke-Matt Kakaley
7-She's Da Bomb-Tony O'Sullivan-Jody Jamieson
8-Ali Blue-Jimmy Takter-Yannick Gingras
9-Precocious Beauty-Gregg McNair-Doug McNair

Drivers are subject to change later in the week. 

Pocono Downs Analysis 10/12/13

Race 1 – Breeders Crown Elimination 2yo Colt Pace – Division 1 of 3
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 5-2-6-4

(5) Idealbeach Hanover – Showed life in his first start off of a month layoff at Lexington, pacing a covered trip and coming home in :26.4 to a game Somestarsomewhere. He will likely be placed closer to the pace and should improve in his second start off a layoff.

(2) Journeyman – The maturing son of American Ideal had two second-place efforts at Lexington, both of which he came home in sub-:27 final quarters. He is a closer at heart, but will need to take advantage of his draw and be placed closer to the lead to have a chance.

(6) Somestarsomewhere – Raced impressively in the International Stallion Stakes last week, taking the lead before the half and continuing to set fast fractions of :54.1, 1:22.4 and winning in 1:49.2. He has speed, but will not be the value we can appreciate in a wager, plus that mile might have taken something out of him.

(4) So Surreal – Made a first over move to sweep by Carracci Hanover in the International Stallion Stakes, coming home in :26.3 to win in 1:49.4. He is extremely consistent and will try to launch off the gate and get an easy mile as a prep for next week’s final.

Race 2 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Filly Trot – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 3-2-4-5

(3) Coffeecake Hanover – Has been on a slight trail of improvement recently, coming off of a second-place finish to Classic Martine in 1:54.1. She took a two week break and returns tonight, likely fresh and ready to blaze around the Pocono oval.

(2) Bouncing Bax – Won the New York Sires Stakes Final impressively in a gate-to-wire 1:56.2. Her speed will be a huge benefactor in her journey to the winners’ circle, but her price may be below par. On a track where speed has been dominating recently, expect big things from this improving filly.

(4) Thistle Dhu – She too loves to race on the lead. She isn’t a deviant when head of command, but she gets the job done. She will likely get a pocket mile in order to save something for next week’s matchup and could blow up the trifecta.

(5) To Dream On – The freshmen filly champion will take an absurd amount of money for winning the Kentucky Filly Futurity in 1:52.1. That race set up for her to win, with the leaders setting fast fractions an hour after a 1:52.4 mile, and To Dream On was poised second over after being barely used in the elimination. She is improving, but these fillies should be able to contain themselves until the wire to prevent a closing effort.

Race 3 – Breeders Crown Elimination 2yo Colt Pace – Division 2 of 3
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 6-7-2-5

(6) Carracci Hanover – He really impressed me in the International Stallion Stake last week, pacing to the half in :26.4 and sustaining his bid until the wire, being defeated by half-a-length at the wire. He has been getting better with every appearance on the track and will be peaking just in time for a Crown title.

(7) Western Vintage – It’s easy to not use him on your tickets, but why wouldn’t you? He crushed his foes in the Bluegrass two weeks ago at Lexington, watching fast fractions being set on the lead just to sweep by and win by 4 lengths in 1:49.4. He loves to close and that may be his Achilles heel here. He won’t be much value either.

(2) Doo Wop Hanover – He has not had an easy trip in his last four starts. He has been parked the mile, badly shuffled, held in a speed duel and pacing on water through a typhoon. With no speed to his inside, you can expect him to get a pocket trip and be involved in the mix late.

(5) Crafty Master – Coming off a second-place finish in the Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final, where he traveled first over to lose by a neck to Bugger Bruiser in 1:50.3. He too is maturing with more miles and will hit the board tonight.

Race 4 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Mare Trot – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-5-2-6

(4) D’orsay – Can be excused for her last two breaks, one being on a half-mile and the other on the slop. She is known to have difficulty with her gait, but under perfect conditions tonight, she should stay flat and be sharp.

(5) Cowgirl Hall – Has been a player on the New York circuit, gradually making her way up the class ranks. She is coming off a good effort in an Open at Saratoga, closing 9 lengths to finish fourth in 1:57. She should like the five-eighths oval better than the half and against this not-so-classy field, she has a great chance for an upset.

(2) Unefoisdansmavie – Was a regular name in the Preferred Trots at The Meadows, racing against the boys week after week. She is excused for her last start against this group, as it was on a sloppy going. She draws well to be put into the race and pick up some pieces late in the mile.

(6) Cedar Dove – Her break was unattractive in the Allerage, quickly coming to a halt after being on a full-trot. She is a well-known competitor against this bunch and will likely complete the super in this event.

Race 5 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Pace – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 1-2-5-4

(1) Lucan Hanover – Received some well-needed time off after performing well at the Little Brown Jug, winning a heat and finishing third overall. He draws perfectly to leave for a pocket-mile, which should prove victorious in the likelihood that a speed duel should develop in the early stages of the mile.

(2) Sunshine Beach – Raced from off the pace in the Tattersalls, which proved to be unsuccessful. He has been doing well racing on the lead and can be expected to be a part of the heavy pace early on. He has shown he can fight right down until the wire, demonstrated in the Battle of the Brandywine on August 17.

(5) Apprentice Hanover – Raced very well in the Tattersalls last week, coming from off the pace to finish fourth with a :25.4 final quarter. Late speed like that will be very useful in making the trifecta here.

(4) Fool Me Once – He is not the same horse he was back in the North America Cup, he appears to be slowly burning out in fact. He still has menacing speed at early parts of the mile and is the reason for a speed battle to likely occur in this elimination.

Race 6 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Trot – Division 1 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-5-6-3

(4) Deadliest Catch – He is a late bloomer in this group of glamour boy trotters, first appearing on the A-string stakes company at Lexington. He did well there, finishing third to eventual Kentucky Futurity winner Creatine. He unfortunately broke in the Futurity, likely not traveling well over the sloppy oval. He gets better every week and will continue on that path tonight.

(5) Smilin Eli – He makes his first start off of a month layoff that started after his fifth-place finish in the Canadian Trotting Classic. It was a positive sign that they gave him time off, which likely also means they fixed whatever was ailing him. He should be back to his champion self and gets lucky drawing into the weaker of the two eliminations.

(6) All Laid Out – He is the “wise guy” horse of this field, due to his two game efforts in the Kentucky Futurity last week. He is getting better, but is still a notch below this group.

(3) Fico – He is a good trotter when it comes to condition races, but seems to mess up when he gets to the stakes. He didn’t do too well at Lexington, in the Canadian Trotting Classic or the Colonial. He is coming off of a good qualifier at Lexington, makes his first start off of a slight break and adds lasix coming into tonight. He could light up the superfecta.

Race 7 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Mare Pace – Division 1 of 1
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 1-2-6-4

(1) Economy Terror – Came back to the races after a well-needed break, finishing fifth in a Preferred Handicap against a few of these mares. This race looks to set up similarly to the Lady Liberty, a race in which she took the grand prize. From the rail, expect her to leave for a pocket trip and fly up the passing lane with fury.

(2) Rocklamation – Was forced to race closer to the pace on an off going in the Allerage. She moved first over through a :27.3 third-quarter as the winds and rain came down. She should get away towards the middle of the pack and come with her usual late kick in the stretch.

(6) Monkey On My Wheel – Appeared to be crippled in the slop at Lexington last week, not having much fight left in the stretch after a perfect trip. She is put to the test tonight from post 6 and will have to get off the gate fast for that pocket position. Chances are, she won’t get it and will somehow waste her energy looking for position early.

(4) Ooh Bad Shark – Being the underdog in this race, she has shown positive improvement entering here. She gradually made her way to the top of the conditioned ranks and is coming off of a 1:50.3 first over victory about two weeks ago. That break should freshen her up and prep her for the challenge of her career.

Race 8 – Breeders Crown Elimination 2yo Colt Pace – Division 3 of 3
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 1-4-3-2

(1) Luck Be Withyou – Got a tightening race two weeks ago, not being used too hard in a 1:54 stroll around Mohawk. He draws the rail, which should allow him to get a pocket trip in this speedy field.

(4) Fort Knox – Has rounded into form since his disappointing effort in the Bluegrass. Last week, he followed live cover and finished fourth in a :27 final quarter. He will likely get away towards the center of the pack with his draw and that will be beneficial for him to sweep up late.

(3) Three Of Clubs – Has a tremendous amount of speed. The son of Mach Three launched off the gate in the Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final, pacing the first quarter in :25.4. He came back in the stretch to finish third in 1:50.3. He will be a victim of the speed this field contains, most likely.

(2) Smack Talk – He too likes to race from off the pace. His post tonight will likely force him to leave the gate a little hard, just to secure position early in the mile. He usually has something left in the stretch, but might not be on the same level as these freshmen.

Race 9 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Trot – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 2-5-4-7

(2) Royalty For Life – Not much to say about this colt. He is vicious on the lead and can be excused for his loss in the Kentucky Futurity, as it was a severely sloppy track and he can’t really “bottom out the field” so to speak. He won’t have to do that tonight, which should spell easy victory.

(5) Spider Blue Chip – He is coming off of two good miles in the Kentucky Futurity, finishing second in the first heat and third in the second. Before that, he won with tremendous ease in the Bluegrass, trotting that mile in a 1:51.3 track record. He has been sharp every week and will be entering tonight.

(4) E L Rocket – Never was fully at the top-tier of this stakes division, but has done well in the minor spots. He is the kind of trotters that gets up to make the final and can do so at a price tonight.

(7) Creatine – This horse will be over bet for his Futurity victory, having the race set up for him to come from off the pace. Regardless, he couldn’t pull that same move tonight, as his outside draw would force him to leave to have a chance to make the final.

Race 10 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Colt Pace – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-1-6-3

(4) Captaintreacherous – Nearly nothing negative to say against this colt. He brings his a-game as well as his competitive spirit every week to the races, going hard mile after hard mile. Even when overtaken in the stretch, he digs within to find another gear to get his nose in front. He is a once-in-a-lifetime horse from the first crop of Somebeachsomewhere and will not be defeated tonight.

(1) Vegas Vacation – The obvious second horse here. He challenged Captaintreacherous first over, getting a narrow lead on him in the stretch. Even though he had command, he soon lost it as Captaintreacherous began to fight back. He is the only horse capable of competing with Captaintreacherous, but beating him? Well, that’s another story. 

(6) Beach Memories – Has had success since reverting to a speed strategy back in the Pennsylvania Sires Stakes Final. He has speed, but not sustainable speed. He will likely bring some kind of price for the trifecta, but not a big one.

(3) Emeritus Maximus – Had to come from an impossible spot in the Tattersalls last week, racing second over while Captaintreacherous cut the mile. He draws well to get some sort of position early on and secure a spot for the final.

Race 11 – Breeders Crown Elimination 3yo Filly Trot – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 4-3-2

(4) Ma Chere Hall – My choice in a final attempt to defeat Bee A Magician. She has improved every week, with her best performances coming at Lexington. She loves to race on the lead and might try to park Bee A Magician in her attempt to sweep to the lead in the early parts of the mile.

(3) Bee A Magician – She is the division leader for obvious reasons: she can’t lose. She’s undefeated this year in 13 starts, with her most recent one being an easy 1:52.2 win in the Ontario Sires Stakes Super Final. With Ma Chere Hall currently at her peak, Bee A Magician might have a challenge tonight.

(2) Shared Past – She raced well in the Filly Futurity, breaking in the first heat and flying around the oval in the second heat. She loves to race on the lead as well, but will likely not put up a :54.2 half-mile.

Race 12 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Pace – Division 1 of 1
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 2-6-5-1

(2) A Rocknroll Dance – He is being exempted for his poor effort in the Allerage, yet another victim of the sloppy track. Before that, he was great, putting up fast numbers and entering the winners’ circle with ease. He has a speedy one to his inside, but we can expect him to be near the top.

(6) Foiled Again – The veteran has not lost a step this year. He has recently been incredibly speedy, but was also racing on the half-mile. He’ll probably be placed towards the middle of the pack and come late into the stretch with a fast bid to pick up minor honors.

(5) Sweet Lou – He hasn’t been the greatest success this year, though has consistently hit the board week after week. He should get a good trip, whether that be a pocket mile or second over journey. Expect him to be somewhere near the top four in the late stages.

(1) Warrawee Needy – Has gradually gotten better with each qualifier. Not a big fan of his absence from this division for two months, but he draws well and has a resume to pose as a threat. He will not bring a price tonight and might need a start against this group before hitting his best stride.

Race 13 – Breeders Crown Elimination 4yo & up Mare Trot – Division 2 of 2
Purse: $25,000

Picks: 3-2-5-1

(3) Check Me Out – She has rounded into form very late in the season, struggling to compete with these mares earlier in the year. She set the fractions in the Allerage last week and was game to the wire, where she was nipped. She should leave the gate again tonight and improve as she slowly begins to peak.

(2) Maven – The obvious choice in this event. Despite drifting in the stretch, she stuck her nose out and got the victory over Check Me Out in the Allerage last week. She has a champion’s will and won’t be an easy foe to defeat here.

(5) Win Missy B – Defeated Preferred Mares at The Meadows just three days ago, doing so in 1:53.2. She was a part of the sophomore-filly trio that challenged each other all throughout last year. It is questionable if she got enough of a break for tonight, but she appears to be at the top of her form and does not fear us.

(1) Real Babe – Showed a ton of speed in the Allerage last week, though sitting a pocket trip to Check Me Out. She is the best of the remaining entrants here (not listed above) and will likely complete the super.

Race 14 – NW $23,000 L5 CD Pace
Purse: $21,000

Picks: 1-4-7-2

(1) Touch The Rock – Steps up in class off of an impressive 1:49.1 mile. He loves to race near the top and his post should allow him to do exactly that tonight.

(4) Fred And Ginger – Will take a majority of the betting here, off of a parked-mile victory against similar at Delaware, Ohio. He will be fresh off of a nearly-month layoff, but still has some competition to face.

(7) Musselsfrmbrussels – Closed very well in his last start, stepping down from this group and going up against the non-winners of $16,000 ranks. That mile showed that he has some life and after a two week break, will likely hit the board tonight.

(2) Flem N Em N – Drops from the Preferred company, where he finished fourth in a 1:48.1 mile. Before that, he finished second in this company after setting the fractions. He will likely try to do the same, but hasn’t shown he is capable of holding command for every pole. 

Friday, October 11, 2013

Father Patrick Overcomes Draw in World Record Crown Triumph

WILKES-BARRE, PA— The freshmen glamour boy leader Father Patrick proved his dominance yet again on Friday night, sitting behind a speedy Nuncio around Pocono’s oval and overtaking him to win the lone Breeders Crown two-year-old colt trot elimination in 1:52.2.

Nuncio got the lead, while Father Patrick got away in second and Exodus Hanover was in third. Nuncio had a 5 length lead on Father Patrick passed the quarter in :26.2. Father Patrick continued to chase Nuncio as he held his 5 length command through a :54 (:27.3) half.

Down the backstretch, Father Patrick began to edge out of the pocket and took his shot at Nuncio. That duo had 11 lengths on Muscle Network racing in third. Nuncio continued to hold command at three-quarters in 1:22.4 (:28.4).

Father Patrick winning in a world record 1:52.1
(Ray Cotolo Photo)
Nuncio was digging in as he tried to hold the advantage into the stretch. Father Patrick sat the better trip and with apparent ease, trotted right by Nuncio to take the lead. Father Patrick went on to win by a length in 1:52.2 (:27.3). Nuncio finished second, Another Transcript was third and Expressive Action was fourth. Southwind Spirit, Auspicious Hanover and Muscle Network complete the top seven joining Credit Fashion and Don Dorado for next week’s final.

Father Patrick ($2.80) is a two-year-old colt by Cantab Hall, out of the mare Gala Dream by Enjoy Lavec. He is owned by Father Patrick Stable, trained by Jimmy Takter and Yannick Gingras was in the bike.

“He’s a very sound horse; we haven’t done anything with this horse, veterinarian work and things like that,” trainer Jimmy Takter said. “That’s a big plus when you’re coming into these big races. He’s such a good-gaited horse and I’ve been comparing him to Muscle Hill. I’ve been here for thirty years and Muscle Hill is maybe the best I’ve seen, but I think this horse is not far behind.”

“It’s a tough mile, we were going 1:52.1. I was impressed over Nuncio; he raced really good. It looked like he [Nuncio] was grabby and things like that and he still fought all the way to the finish line. Of course I give him respect. I know this horse [Father Patrick] is just so special and he goes by anything basically.”